With wet weather impacting cow comfort and productivity in the West, February 2023 growth in cow numbers was partially offset by a minimal increase in milk output per cow, slowing overall growth in milk production compared to a year ago.
February 2022-23 milk production recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for February 2023 compared to February 2022:
- U.S. milk production: 17.675 billion pounds, up 0.8%
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.417 million, up 37,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 1,877 pounds, up 7 pounds
- 24-state milk production: 16.91 billion pounds, up 1%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.939 million, up 54,000 head
- 24-state average milk per cow: 1,892 pounds, up 7 pounds
Source: USDA Milk Production report, March 20, 2023
Cow numbers higher
Preliminary February 2023 U.S. cow numbers were estimated at 9.417 million head, up 37,000 from a year earlier and 12,000 more than January. U.S. cow numbers were the highest since May 2022.
Among the 24 major dairy states (Table 1), February 2023 cow numbers were estimated at 8.939 million, up 54,000 from February 2022 and 12,000 more than January 2023. Cow numbers in those states were the highest since August 2021.
Compared to a month earlier, Texas cow numbers were up 5,000 head, with Idaho up 3,000 and Georgia and Washington each up 2,000.
Texas led all states in year-over-year herd growth in February, up 22,000 head from a year ago, followed by Idaho (+15,000), Iowa (+14,000), South Dakota (+12,000) and New York (+10,000).
Compared to a year earlier, cow number declines were again heaviest in New Mexico and Florida, down 12,000 and 11,000 head, respectively.
Milk per cow changes little
The year-over-year increase in average milk production per cow for February was small, up just 7 pounds compared to the same month a year earlier (Table 2). Year-over-year milk per cow increased more than a pound per day in just one state: Texas. Compared to a year earlier, monthly output per cow was down 20 pounds in California.
Milk production increase limited
With the year-over-year gain in cow numbers offset by weak growth in milk output per cow, February 2023 overall milk production was up 0.8% in the U.S. and 1% among major dairy states compared to the same month a year earlier.
February 2023 year-over-year milk production was up in 12 states. Texas led all states in terms of volume growth, up 69 million pounds, with Idaho and New York up 42 million pounds and 35 million pounds, respectively.
The 12 states posting volume declines were led by California, New Mexico and Florida, and were down a combined 72 million pounds. Feeling the impact of wet weather, milk production in California was down even though cow numbers were up by 3,000 head.
Georgia (+6.8%) and South Dakota (+6.2%) led all states in year-over-year percentage milk growth. In contrast, Florida milk production was down about 11.4%, driven by lower cow numbers.
