There’s still time and weather to impact cropping plans, but early indications are that acreage devoted to dry hay production will rebound slightly in 2023.
The USDA’s 2023 Prospective Plantings report was released March 31, providing a first glimpse of how acreage will be distributed among major crops this growing season (Table 1). Estimates included in the report are based primarily on surveys of U.S. farmers conducted during the first two weeks of March.
U.S. producers intend to harvest 50.6 million acres of all dry hay in 2023, up 2% from 2022. Even with the increase, the harvested area isn’t much higher than last year’s 115-year low of 49.5 million acres.
Compared to a year ago, largest increases in 2023 hay acreage are forecast in Texas (+610,000 acres), South Dakota (+250,000) and Colorado (+210,000). Those gains offset declines in Kansas, Iowa and Illinois, where rising corn acreage is expected to compete for space.
Driven by the increase in Texas, dry hay acreage in the 24 major dairy states is projected at 27.43 million acres, an increase of 810,000 acres (3%) from the year before.
Record-low all hay harvested area in 2023 is expected in California – which will see the dry hay area fall below 800,000 acres – as well as in Delaware, Illinois, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.
The pre-season estimate doesn’t differentiate between alfalfa and other hay. In 2022, about 30% of all dry hay acreage was devoted to alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures.
Previously, the USDA estimated acreage newly seeded to alfalfa in 2022 at 1.68 million acres, up 2% from 2021 but still the second-lowest total in 25 years. About 1.29 million acres (77%) of new seeding was concentrated in 22 of 24 major dairy states, but new seeding in those states was down about 26,000 acres compared to a year earlier.
Other crops
Here’s a summary of early 2023 acreage estimates for other crops from the USDA:
- Corn planted area for all purposes in 2023 is estimated at 92 million acres, up 3.42 million acres (4%) from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 states providing estimates. After a decline of 1.15 million acres from 2021 to 2022 in North Dakota, 2023 acreage is expected to increase 800,000 acres. Acreage increases of 150,000 acres or more from last year are also expected in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota and South Dakota. Record-high acreage is expected in Arizona and Idaho; record low acreage is expected in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
- Soybean planted area for 2023 is estimated at 87.5 million acres, up slightly from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 15 of the 29 states providing estimates. Increases of 100,000 acres or more are anticipated in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. These increases are balanced by decreases of 100,000 acres or more in Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan and Missouri. If realized, the planted area in Illinois, Nebraska, New York, Ohio and Wisconsin will be the largest on record.
- All wheat planted area for 2023 is estimated at 49.9 million acres, up 9% from 2022.
- Affecting cottonseed production, cotton planted area for 2023 is estimated at 11.3 million acres, down 18% from last year.
Grain stocks
The USDA also released quarterly Grain Stocks updates on March 31. Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 7.4 billion bushels, down 5% from March 1, 2022. About 4.11 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 1% from a year earlier.
Soybeans stored in all positions totaled 1.69 billion bushels, down 13% from March 1, 2022. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 750 million bushels, down slightly from a year ago.
The Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks and all other National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reports are available online.
