U.S. milk production posted small growth in May, but even that was enough to overwhelm Midwestern cheese processing capacity and add to downward pricing pressures. Here’s a summary of the USDA’s monthly Milk Production report, released June 21.
May 2022-23 dairy recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for May 2023 compared to May 2022:
- U.S. milk production: 19.88 billion pounds, up 0.6%
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.43 million, up 13,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,108 pounds, up 10 pounds
- 24-state milk production: 19.02 billion pounds, up 0.8%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.945 million, up 24,000 head
- 24-state average milk per cow: 2,126 pounds, up 11 pounds
Source: USDA Milk Production report, June 21, 2023
Cow numbers hold
Preliminary May 2023 U.S. cow numbers were estimated at 9.43 million head, up 13,000 from a year earlier but unchanged from April’s revised estimate. Among the 24 major dairy states (Table 1), May 2023 cow numbers were estimated at 8.945 million, up 24,000 from May 2022 but also unchanged from April 2023.
U.S. and major dairy state cow numbers are now down about 15,000 from March, but most of that may may be attributed to the Texas fire.
Idaho and South Dakota led all states in year-over-year growth in cow numbers, up a combined 29,000 head. The April fire that killed an estimated 18,000 cows in Texas limited cow growth in the Lone Star State, up just 1,000 head from a year earlier. Largest declines were in New Mexico and Florida, and cow numbers were also lower in California and Wisconsin.
Milk output per cow
Minimal growth in the average production per cow continues to limit overall increases. May U.S. production growth was again light, up just 10 pounds per cow compared to the same month a year earlier. Within the 24 major states, the increase was 11 pounds (Table 2).
Minnesota and Wisconsin led all states in output per cow increases, up about 1 pound per day compared to a year earlier. Cows in South Dakota, New Mexico, Kansas, California and Pennsylvania produced less milk in May 2023 compared to May 2022.
Milk production up
With those factors, the preliminary estimate of overall May milk production was up 0.6% in the U.S. and 0.8% in the major dairy states compared to a year earlier, the third straight month output was up less than 1% from a year ago.
May 2023 year-over-year milk production was up in 14 states, led by Idaho (up 44 million pounds), Wisconsin (35 million pounds), New York (28 million pounds), and Minnesota and South Dakota (each up 22 million pounds).
The eight states posting volume declines were led by California (down 24 million pounds) and Florida (down 12 million pounds).
South Dakota (+6.2%) and Kansas (+3.6%) led all states in year-over-year percentage milk growth. In contrast, Florida and New Mexico milk production was down about 6.7% and 3.8%, respectively.
The USDA did revise the April estimate slightly higher. At 18.4 billion pounds, production in the 24 major dairy states was up 0.6% from a year earlier. The revision represented an increase of 23 million pounds (0.1%) from the preliminary production report released last month.
With the school year ending and fluid milk orders down, milk supplies were running high, especially in the Midwest where the spring flush has been extended with cooler temperatures. Surplus milk was being discounted between $4 and $11 per hundredweight below the Class III price as cheesemakers remained at or near processing capacity. Milk handlers had trouble finding homes for extra loads, forcing some milk dumping.
Read also: Production, processing capacity leading to milk dumping
