Heavier dairy cow culling and no increase in milk output per cow held June 2023 U.S. milk production in check, according to the USDA’s monthly Milk Production report.
June 2022-23 dairy recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for June 2023 compared to June 2022:
- U.S. milk production: 18.92 billion pounds, unchanged
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.408 million, down 5,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,011 pounds, up 1 pound
- 24-state milk production: 18.11 billion pounds, up 0.2%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.929 million, up 14,000 head
- 24-state average milk per cow: 2,028 pounds, up 1 pound
Source: USDA Milk Production report, July 20, 2023
Cow numbers mixed
Preliminary June 2023 U.S. cow numbers were estimated at 9.408 million head, down 5,000 from a year earlier and down 16,000 from May’s revised estimate. Among the 24 major dairy states, June 2023 cow numbers were estimated at 8.929 million, up 14,000 from June 2022 but down 20,000 from May 2023 (Table 1).
The USDA estimated there were 255,700 dairy cows slaughtered in June, up about 6,600 from May and 22,700 more than June 2022. Through the week ending July 1, about 1.62 million head of dairy cull cows were marketed through U.S. slaughter plants in 2023, up about 88,700 from the same period in 2022.
Idaho and South Dakota led all states in year-over-year growth in cow numbers, up a combined 27,000 head in June. That was offset by a combined 27,000 head decline in Texas and New Mexico.
Milk output per cow
Virtually no growth in the average production per cow continues to limit overall increases (Table 2). June U.S. and major dairy state production growth was just 1 pound per cow compared to the same month a year earlier, with large declines in California, New Mexico and Texas. Virginia, New York, Illinois and Florida saw the largest increases.
Milk production steady
With those factors, the preliminary estimate of overall June milk production compared to a year earlier was unchanged to slightly lower in the U.S., and up just 0.2% in the major dairy states, the fourth straight month output was up less than 1% from a year ago.
June 2023 year-over-year milk production was up in 14 states, led by New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, Idaho and South Dakota. The 10 states posting volume declines were led by Texas, California and New Mexico.
On a percentage basis, year-over-year production was up nearly 7% in South Dakota and about 3% higher in New York, Ohio, Michigan and Georgia. Decliners were led by New Mexico, Texas and Oregon.
The USDA also revised the May estimate in the 24 major dairy states slightly higher. At 19.03 billion pounds, production was up 0.9% from a year earlier.
And, with another quarter coming to a close, the USDA estimated April-June 2023 U.S. milk production at 58 billion pounds, up 0.3% from the same period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.42 million head, 8,000 head less than January-March 2022 but 8,000 head more than April-June last year.
