Reductions in cow numbers and weaker average milk output per cow contributed to a decline in U.S. and major state milk production in July, the first year-over-year decline since June 2021-22, according to the USDA’s monthly Milk Production report, released Aug. 21.
July 2022-23 dairy recap at a glance
Reviewing the USDA preliminary estimates for July 2023 compared to July 2022:
- U.S. milk production: 19.08 billion pounds, down 0.5%
- U.S. cow numbers: 9.4 million, down 13,000 head
- U.S. average milk per cow: 2,029 pounds, down 9 pounds
- 24-state milk production: 18.26 billion pounds, down 0.6%
- 24-state cow numbers: 8.92 million, unchanged
- 24-state average milk per cow: 2,047 pounds, down 13 pounds
Source: USDA Milk Production report, Aug. 21, 2023
Cow numbers hit eight-month low
Preliminary July 2023 U.S. cow numbers were estimated at 9.4 million head, down 13,000 from a year earlier and down 3,000 from June’s revised estimate. Among the 24 major dairy states, July 2023 cow numbers were estimated at 8.92 million, down 7,000 from June 2023 but unchanged from July 2022 (Table 1). The U.S. and major dairy state dairy herd is now the smallest since last December.
Contributing to the smaller milking herd, about 1.85 million head of dairy cull cows were marketed through U.S. slaughter plants through July 29, up about 101,300 from the same period in 2022.
Nine states had more cows than the year before; 13 states had fewer cows. Idaho, South Dakota and Michigan led all states in year-over-year growth in cow numbers, up a combined 40,000 head in July. That was partially offset by a combined 32,000 head reduction in Texas and New Mexico.
Milk output per cow
Among other regional weather factors, high feed costs and tight income margins pressured July 2023 milk output per cow lower than the year before. Among major states, changes in monthly production per cow were wide in July, but the overall average weakened (Table 2).
Georgia, Florida and New York showed per-cow output increased nearly 2 pounds per day during the month, while production in California and New Mexico declined by more than 3 pounds and 2 pounds, respectively.
Milk production impacted
With those factors, the preliminary estimate of overall July milk production was lower in the U.S. compared to a year earlier, the first year-over-year decline since June 2021-22 output.
July 2023 year-over-year milk production was up in 12 states, led by New York, Michigan, Idaho, South Dakota and Wisconsin, up a combined 172 million pounds. The 10 states posting volume declines were led by California, Texas and New Mexico, down a combined 308 million pounds.
South Dakota remained the milk percentage growth leader, up 7.5% from July 2022; July 2023 production was down more than 9% from a year earlier in New Mexico.
The USDA revised the June milk production estimate slightly higher. At 18.95 billion pounds, U.S. production was up 0.2% from a year earlier.
