The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) showed the first forecast for the 2024-25 crop marketing year. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from last year’s record. With higher beginning stocks, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017-18.
Total U.S. corn use for 2024-25 is forecast to rise just under 1% relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. U.S. corn exports for 2024-25 are forecast to rise 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion, supported by a combined 5.4 million ton reduction in exports for Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. is projected to be the world’s largest exporter for the second consecutive year, with an expected increase in global market share.
With the total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2024-25 ending stocks are up 80 million bushels from last year and, if realized, would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018-19. Stocks would represent 14.2% of use, up from 13.7% the prior year and the highest since 2019-20. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, down 25 cents from 2023-24.
The 2024-25 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports and ending stocks compared with 2023-24. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. With higher beginning stocks and production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, up 8% from 2023-24. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 131.2 million tons, up 8.9 million from 2023-24.
The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel compared with $12.55 per bushel in 2023-24. The soybean meal price is forecast at $330 per short ton, down $50. The soybean oil price is forecast at 42 cents per pound, down 6 cents from 2023-24.
The outlook for 2024-25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, modestly higher domestic use, increased exports and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 6% from 2023-24 on larger carry-in stocks and production. All wheat production is projected at 1,858 million bushels, up 3% from last year on higher harvested acreage and yields. The projected 2024-25 season-average farm price is $6 per bushel, down $1.10 from last year’s season-average farm price on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.
Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2025 is forecast to be lower than 2024. Beef production is forecast lower as tighter cattle supplies and increased heifer and cow retention are expected to result in lower slaughter of both fed and non-fed cattle.
For 2025, beef exports are forecast lower than 2024, as tight domestic supplies limit competitiveness. Beef imports are higher due to tight beef domestic supplies, particularly for processing-grade beef.
Find additional information on the USDA WASDE report from May.
