The June Feed Outlook report shows global coarse grains production forecast is lower for 2024-25. The 2024-25 U.S. corn crop has moved forward and is largely completed. With the production projection unchanged and no changes to the 2023-24 corn supply and demand estimates, the total supply for the 2024-25 corn crop remains at 16,907 million bushels. Usage projections are unchanged relative to last month, resulting in no changes in ending stocks. Corn prices remain projected at $4.40 per bushel for 2024-25.
In response to variable weather conditions across the globe, the 2024-25 coarse grains production forecast is lowered by 1.4 million to 1,511.20 million tons this month. This reduction is largely attributed to a lower barley output projection, partly offset by higher projected global corn output. Global coarse grains trade for 2024-25 is forecast higher this month as higher global corn export volumes outweigh reductions in global barley trade.
Corn growth and development starts with ample soil moisture
The USDA’s outlook for the 2024-25 U.S. corn supply is unchanged from the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report at 16,907 million bushels. Despite variable weather conditions, farmers managed to ramp up the planting pace last month. Additionally, sustained adequate soil moisture levels are favorable for growing environments. Yield projections are unchanged this month at 181 bushels per acre, contributing to the production forecast of 14,860 million bushels.
According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) most recent Crop Progress report, 95% of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of June 9, on par with the five-year average.
The corn crop started its development with ample moisture. The percentage of the U.S. corn crop under drought conditions fell to a level of 3% for the week ending June 4, per the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board Agriculture in Drought report. For comparison, 45% of the U.S. corn crop was rated under drought conditions a year ago. Further, most major U.S. corn-producing states are no longer experiencing drought conditions. However, a notable 38% of corn area in Kansas is still estimated to be impacted by drought.
The NASS weekly crop progress shows 85% emerged as of June 9, which is 1 percentage point above the 5 average and 6 percentage points below last year. Although it is early in the growing season, current corn crop conditions are favorable. As of June 9, the NASS rated 74% of this year’s crop in the good to excellent category. This rating is 13 percentage points higher than a year ago.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from June.
