The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released July 12.
Milk production, prices
Milk production forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 are lowered from last month based on slower growth in milk output per cow more than offsetting higher cow inventory numbers.
- At 226.9 billion pounds, the 2024 production estimate was lowered from last month’s report and would be up just 500 million pounds from the 2023 total of 226.4 billion pounds.
For 2024, cheese, butter, whey and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are raised from the previous month on recent price strength and an expectation of tighter milk supplies. With the changes in product prices, the Class III milk price is now forecast at $18.25 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is projected at $20.75 per cwt. The all-milk price forecast is raised to $22.25 per cwt.
- In its forecast for 2025, the USDA estimated milk production at 229.1 billion pounds, down from last month’s report but 1.8 billion pounds more than 2024’s revised forecast of 226.9 billion pounds.
With tighter milk supplies, strong demand for dairy products is expected to carry into 2025, and prices are raised for butter, cheese, whey and NDM. As a result of higher product prices, Class III milk price is forecast at $18.45 per cwt, and the Class IV price is projected at $20.60 per cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is forecast at $22.50 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised with higher expected steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting reduced cow slaughter.
Looking ahead to 2025, lower expected slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by higher slaughter for outlying quarters. As these cattle are placed on feed in the first half of the year, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half. In addition, dressed weights are expected to remain relatively high into 2025.
For 2024, cattle prices are raised on recent price data and expectations that demand for fed cattle will remain firm. This price strength is expected to carry into 2025, with raised price forecasts. The fed cattle price forecast for 2024 was estimated at $186.86 per cwt, with prices reaching $188 per cwt in the fourth quarter. The 2023 average was $175.54 per cwt.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices.
- Corn: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook called for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and slightly lower ending stocks.
Corn production for 2024-25 is forecast up 240 million bushels on greater planted and harvested area from the June Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181 bushels per acre. Total use is raised 100 million bushels with increases to both feed and residual use and exports based on larger supplies and lower expected prices. With use rising slightly more than supply, ending stocks are down 5 million bushels.
At $4.30 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was 10 cents lower from the June forecast and is down 35 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.65 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. soybean forecast includes slightly lower beginning stocks, reduced production and unchanged use.
Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 15 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 85.3 million acres in the June Acreage report, is down 0.3 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 52 bushels per acre.
The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month and down $1.45 from the average price of $12.55 per bushel in 2023-24. Soybean meal prices were also unchanged at $330 per short ton, down $50 from the 2023-24 average of $380 per ton and $122 less than the 2022-23 average of $452 per ton.
As a predictor of cottonseed availability, 2024-25 harvested cotton acreage was forecast at 9.67 million acres, up more than 3.23 million acres from 2023-24. Cotton production is increased to 17 million 480-pound bales, up about 5 million bales from 2023-24.
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $276 per ton in May, while all alfalfa hay prices averaged $202 per ton and prices for other hay averaged $154 per ton.
The spread between U.S. average alfalfa and other hay prices – at more than $100 per ton last May and June – was $48 per ton in May.
