The July Feed Outlook report shows an increase to U.S. corn production to lift the 2024-25 feed grain supply projection. The supply forecast is 449.9 million metric tons this month, up 2.1 million metric tons from the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) forecast. An increase in corn planted and harvested acreage is the main driver of the increase in supply.
Oats harvested area and yield are also forecast higher. However, the production increase from oats is more than offset by lower expectations of production from sorghum and barley, on lower harvested acres and lower yields for barley. Projected total U.S. feed grain use is raised by 2.2 million metric tons, resulting in a slight decline in ending stocks that are projected at 56.3 million metric tons. The expected increase to overall U.S. feed grains production is expected to impact prices received by farmers.
Foreign coarse grain production for 2024-25 is projected lower this month, down 4.6 million tons. With fewer supplies available, domestic use is expected to fall, with the largest impact in feed use. However, after accounting for the expected reduction in export volumes, the overall projected decline in overall total coarse grain use more than offsets output declines, lifting foreign ending stocks.
Corn supply is up on larger corn acreage
The acreage report forecast 91.5 million acres of corn planted in the U.S. for the 2024-25 marketing year. The U.S. corn crop is progressing in its development. A large proportion of the crop is silking earlier in the crop cycle than in years past. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Progress report indicates that 24% of the national corn crop reached the silking stage on July 7, compared to 18% a year ago and 14% for the five-year average.
As silking has begun, crop conditions continue to be favorable. The last rating of the U.S. corn crop is 68% good to excellent, per the NASS Crop Progress report for the week ending July 7. This rating is 13 percentage points above last year. These crop conditions and development rates, particularly in major producing states, support the current yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre. However, adequate temperatures and moisture in the fields will continue to be critical in the next few weeks as the corn silks are pollinated.
The 2024-25 season-average corn farm price is projected to be $4.30 per bushel.
Record yields boost U.S. oats production forecast
The 2024-25 U.S. oats harvest is shaping up to be the strongest since the 2020-21 marketing year, as phenomenal yields augment a rebound in the projected harvested area. Total oat supplies are forecast to reach 173 million bushels this year – up 4% from 2023-24 – strengthened by a record yield projection (of 70.9 bushels per acre) and increased harvested area (now forecast at 900,000 acres).
Ideal weather conditions throughout the growing season support the 3.8-bushel-per-acre jump in the current marketing year yield forecast between June and July. The oats season-average farm price for 2024-25 is unchanged from June at $3.60 per bushel.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from July.
