The August Feed Outlook report shows the 2024-25 U.S. coarse grain production forecast is lowered by 1.1 million tons to 396.4 million. Despite a 1% decline in harvested corn area, yield gains boost corn production prospects by 47 million bushels. The 2024-25 season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is 2.1 bushels per acre higher than last month’s projection at 183.1 bushels per acre. However, a 94-million-bushel reduction to the 2024-25 sorghum output forecast more than offsets gains in corn output. The decrease in sorghum output is attributed to a lower yield forecast, which now sits at 52.9 bushels per acre. A slight reduction to barley area is offset by an increase in yields to 79.1 bushels per acre from 74.2 bushels per acre, resulting in a relatively unchanged barley production forecast. A higher 2024-25 oats yield forecast (on unchanged) area raises supplies by 6 million bushels.
Reduced acreage and higher yields lift 2024-25 U.S. corn supply expectations
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts 2024-25 U.S. corn production to be 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million bushels from the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projection. This production forecast is the product of a higher yield projection at 183.1 bushels per acre which will be a record if realized, and a slight reduction in harvested area of 0.7 million acres.
This year’s yield prospects reflect the favorable weather conditions that have spanned the Corn Belt throughout the growing season. Moreover, opportunities for early season plantings seized by many producers allowed for deep tap root establishment – allowing plants utilizing a greater portion of subsoil moisture than they would otherwise. This is particularly evident in states such as Iowa and Kansas, where yields are projected to exceed last year’s estimates by 8 and 9 bushels per acre, respectively. Despite less acreage attributed to corn in 2024 relative to 2023, Illinois and Iowa are expected to exceed 2023-24 output levels by 120 and 59 million bushels on yield increases of 9% and 4%, respectively. For context, the forecast yields for Illinois and Iowa would be a record, if realized. Lastly, a slight boost in the harvested-to-planted corn-area ratio in Nebraska, combined with a year-to-year increase of 12 bushels per acre in yields, lifts Nebraska’s 2024-25 yield forecast to a potential record-high 194 bushels per acre.
This projected supply increase is expected to place downward pressure on prices, spurring demand. In fact, Central Illinois corn cash prices have been hovering around $4 per bushel, with U.S. Gulf export prices averaging $185 per ton (or $4.70 per bushel) in July. U.S. producers are expected to receive $4.20 per bushel of corn in 2024-25, on average, representing a 10-cent reduction per bushel of corn from the previous forecast.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from August.
