The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) showed the U.S. corn outlook has smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024-25 are 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol for 2023-24. Corn production for 2024-25 is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 15 billion bushels. With supply falling and use unchanged, ending stocks are reduced 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024-25 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1.502 billion. This month’s 2024-25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, virtually unchanged trade and reduced stocks relative to last month.
Foreign corn ending stocks are cut 1.4 million tons to 256.1 million, mostly reflecting a reduction for China partly offset by an increase for Tanzania. World corn ending stocks, at 308.4 million tons, are down 1.8 million.
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2024-25 include lower beginning stocks, production and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect a slight increase to crush for 2023-24. Soybean production for 2024-25 is projected down 3 million bushels to 4.6 billion. With 2024-25 soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 550 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal and soybean oil prices are also unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively.
The 2024-25 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.70 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2024-25 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade and ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production.
The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month on higher beef, pork and broiler forecasts. Beef production is raised on higher cow slaughter and heavier cattle weights in the second half of the year. For 2025, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised. Beef production is raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter and heavier carcass weights.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2024 and 2025 on the strength of domestic demand and availability of supplies from Oceania and South America. Beef exports are raised for 2024 and 2025 on recent trade data and continued expected strength in global beef demand. Cattle price forecasts are lowered for the second half of 2024 based on recent prices. Lower prices are expected to carry into 2025.
Find additional information on the USDA WASDE report from September.
