The September Feed Outlook report shows the 2024-25 U.S. coarse grains supply is relatively unchanged. This month’s outlook is for marginally higher supplies and slightly tighter stocks. A slight increase in corn yields is not enough to offset a reduction in beginning stocks driven by strengthening fourth-quarter demand in 2023-24.
2024-25 U.S. corn supplies are slightly lower despite a modest rise in yields
Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) September Crop Production report indicates U.S. corn yields are expected to average 183.6 bushels per acre. This forecast is based on yields reported by farmers, objective yield survey data and remote sensing information. This forecast is 0.5 bushel per acre higher than last month’s projection – driven by increased yields in Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Kansas. NASS had the opportunity to revise planted and harvested area, based on the latest certified acreage data from the FSA, but no changes were made to corn planted or harvested area this month. The higher yield forecast contributes to a slightly higher 2024-25 corn production forecast of 15.2 billion bushels.
In general, weather conditions have been ideal throughout the growing season for this year’s corn crop. Much of the Corn Belt received adequate moisture conditions during pollination. As the crop is entering the maturation stages, drier soil moisture conditions (relative to last month) are seen as timely, placing the 2024-25 U.S. corn crop in relatively good shape – as reflected in the updated yield forecast. Except in northwestern areas of the Midwest, corn is denting and/or is reaching full maturity at or ahead of the normal pace. Although it is early, corn harvest has begun. As of Sept. 8, 5% of this year’s crop was harvested – 1 percentage point above last year and 2 percentage points ahead of the five-year average.
After accounting for adjustments to 2023-24 corn use forecasts, a 55 million-bushel reduction in 2024-25 beginning stocks brings the total corn supply projection down to 17 billion bushels. No changes are made this month to corn use, resulting in an ending-stocks forecast that is 16 million bushels lower than the previous forecast at 2.1 billion bushels. In addition to the projected increase in output, cash and futures prices suggest the average price forecast received by U.S. corn farmers will be lower than previously projected and is revised down 10 cents this month at $4.10 per bushel.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from September.
