As the world grapples with the climate crisis, methane emissions from agriculture – especially dairy farming – have emerged as a critical obstacle. Methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide, traps heat 25 times more efficiently over a century, making it a high-priority target for climate action.

In Canada, the dairy sector is a major source of agricultural methane, placing it squarely in the spotlight as the country races to meet Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) targets and Canada's net zero by 2050 commitment. However, the industry’s sluggish pace toward emission reductions raises serious doubts about achieving this goal.

A global surge in methane emissions

Methane levels in the atmosphere have now surged to more than two-and-a-half times their preindustrial levels. The past few years have seen an alarming acceleration, with 2023 data showing a marked spike likely driven by post-pandemic economic recovery, increasing global food demand and population growth. This surge is not just a global issue – it is felt acutely in Canada, where methane emissions from dairy farming have increased, largely from two primary sources: enteric fermentation in cows and manure management.

Utilizing cutting-edge satellite data from the Sentinel-5P and advanced machine learning models like long short-term memory (LSTM), our mooanalytica research group at Dalhousie University tracked emissions across more than 1,100 Canadian dairy farms and processors between 2015 and 2023. The analysis revealed striking disparities, with Ontario leading the pack in methane emissions, far outpacing other provinces such as Nova Scotia and Manitoba. The research also uncovered significant seasonal variations, with autumn seeing the highest levels of methane emissions.

COVID-19's paradoxical impact on methane emissions

The COVID-19 pandemic sent shockwaves through the global economy, and Canada’s dairy sector was no exception. Initially, supply chain disruptions and a reduction in herd sizes caused methane emissions to drop as farms scaled back production. Yet this decline was temporary. As market demand rebounded, so did emissions, with a vengeance.

Dairy farms, grappling with labour shortages and supply chain challenges, resorted to intensified farm practices. These adjustments, combined with the disposal of surplus milk, led to an increase in methane emissions during the pandemic recovery period. The pandemic-induced supply chain chaos also shifted feeding practices, further exacerbating emissions. Farms adopted alternative feeds, leading to higher methane output from livestock digestion.

While these disruptions temporarily reduced emissions, they have since returned to prepandemic levels, exposing the industry’s vulnerability to external shocks and its slow adaptation to sustainable practices.

Satellite data and artificial intelligence: A game-changer for methane tracking

The application of artificial intelligence and satellite data has transformed how we understand methane emissions. The Sentinel-5P satellite, equipped with the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), captures high-resolution images of methane concentrations over dairy farms and processing facilities. Combined with LSTM models, this technology enables researchers to track emission patterns, identify hotspots and predict future trends.

Data from 2015 to 2023 highlight not only seasonal shifts – fall emissions peak while spring and winter remain relatively low – but also geographical differences, with Ontario consistently registering the highest methane emissions. The ability to pinpoint these trends offers valuable insights for mitigation strategies, yet the stark reality remains: The implementation of these strategies is lagging.

The roadblocks to net zero: A 2050 target under threat

Canada’s dairy sector is currently off pace to meet the net zero by 2050 target. According to the World Benchmarking Alliance's 2023 report, the performance of Canadian dairy processors is concerning. Despite setting climate goals, progress remains slow, with most companies scoring under 10 out of 100. Even Agropur, a major player, ranks poorly on sustainability efforts.

This lack of progress is mirrored across the industry, casting doubt on the feasibility of achieving net zero emissions by the end of the decade. The Paris Agreement’s ambition to limit global warming to 1.5°C hinges on significant methane reductions. Yet without urgent reforms in methane management practices, Canada’s dairy industry risks missing these targets.

The full adoption of the most effective mitigation strategies for ruminant methane emissions could help achieve the 1.5°C goal by 2050, but with current practices, the 2050 target may be out of reach. There is still a window for change: If decisive actions are taken now, the sector could recover lost ground and aim for 2050 with stronger resolve.

Bridging the gap: Industry-academia collaboration

One of the biggest obstacles to reducing methane emissions is the disconnect between industry and academia. Cutting-edge methane monitoring and mitigation strategies exist, but they’re not being fully leveraged by the dairy sector. Researchers have voiced frustration over the slow uptake of their findings and the limited support they receive from the industry.

Now more than ever, collaboration is essential. The dairy industry must engage more actively with scientific communities to implement solutions already at hand. Rather than attributing blame, a partnership between industry and academia holds transformative potential. Academic institutions bring invaluable knowledge and innovation, but they need industry support to turn research into real-world solutions. Only by fostering this relationship can Canada’s dairy sector make meaningful progress in curbing methane emissions.

Another pressing issue is the lack of support for researchers in smaller provinces. While Ontario dominates the dairy market, regions like Atlantic Canada also produce vital insights that could significantly contribute to methane reduction efforts. Despite having a smaller market share, their work is often overlooked and underfunded. The industry needs to move beyond market size and recognize the innovation coming from all regions. Ignoring this potential weakens the collective effort to meet Canada’s climate goals. Equal support for all provinces is essential to making real progress.

The path forward: A call for bold action

The Canadian dairy industry stands at a critical juncture. The current trajectory is unsustainable, with methane emissions showing no signs of significant reduction despite the availability of new technologies. If the industry is serious about meeting the net zero by 2050 goal, it must move beyond rhetoric and start investing in practices that deliver measurable results.

Leveraging artificial intelligence and satellite data offers a path forward, but these tools alone are not enough. Greater industry participation and a genuine commitment to change are essential. Dairy companies must embrace innovation, support academic research and collaborate with policymakers to create a regulatory environment that incentivizes emission reductions. Time is running out. The tools and the solutions to mitigate methane emissions are within reach, but the will to implement them must follow.

Without immediate, coordinated action, the prospect of achieving net zero methane emissions by 2050 will fade into the distance, leaving the Canadian dairy industry at risk of falling behind both national and global climate goals.

References omitted but are available upon request by sending an email to the editor.