The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Oct. 11.
Milk production, prices
The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered from last month on slightly less growth in milk output per cow. That slower growth in milk output per cow is expected to carry over into 2025.
- At 225.8 billion pounds, the 2024 production estimate was lowered 100 million pounds from last month’s report and would be 600 million pounds less than the 2023 total of 226.4 billion pounds.
For 2024, price forecasts for cheese and butter declined, while whey and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised on recent price strength and expected demand strength. As a result, the Class III milk price is now forecast at $19.05 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is projected at $20.80 per cwt. The all-milk price forecast is lowered 25 cents to $22.80 per cwt.
- In its forecast for 2025, the USDA estimated milk production at 227.7 billion pounds, down 200 million pounds from last month’s report but 1.9 billion pounds more than 2024’s revised forecast.
For 2025, projected milk prices were lowered from last month’s outlook. Price forecast for cheese and butter declined, while price projections for whey and NDM were raised on recent price strength and expected demand strength. As a result, next year’s Class III milk price is forecast at $18.95 per cwt, and the Class IV price is projected at $20.35 cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is forecast at $22.75 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised on higher cattle slaughter and heavier dressed weights for the third and fourth quarters.
Looking ahead to 2025, beef production is raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter, particularly in the first half of the year, and heavier weights. Steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by higher slaughter for outlying quarters. As these cattle are placed on feed in the first half of the year, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half.
For 2024, cattle prices are raised in the third and fourth quarters on reported data for September and continued strong demand for cattle through the end of the year. The price strength is expected to carry into the first quarter of 2025. The fed cattle price forecast for 2024 was estimated at $186.18 per cwt, with prices averaging $186 per cwt in the fourth quarter. The 2023 average was $175.54 per cwt.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE and Crop Production reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: Despite an increase in production, this month’s WASDE 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook called for smaller supplies, larger exports and reduced ending stocks.
Corn production for 2024-25 is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels and is up 17 million bushels from last month’s forecast. Although down 1% from 2023, if realized would be the third highest production for grain on record for the U.S.
Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, the yield is forecast at a record-high 183.8 bushels per acre, is 0.2 bushels higher than last month’s projection and up 6.5 bushels from last year’s final estimate of 177.3 bushels. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4% from the previous year.
At $4.10 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged from the September forecast and is down 45 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.55 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. soybean forecasts includes lower beginning stocks, production and ending stocks.
Looking at this year’s harvest, soybean production is projected at a record high 4.58 billion bushels, down slightly from last month’s estimate but up 10% from 2023. Harvested area, forecast at 86.3 million acres, is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast but up 5% from last year.
Based on conditions as of Oct.1, yields are expected to average a record high of 53.1 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and up 2.5 bushels from 2023. If realized, this would be the highest yield on record for the U.S.
The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month and down $1.60 from the average price of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24. Projected soybean meal prices were also unchanged at $320 per short ton, down about $65 from the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton and $132 less than the 2022-23 average of $452 per ton.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, the news is mixed. The 2024-25 harvested cotton acreage was forecast at 8.63 million acres, unchanged from last month and up 34% from 2023-24. However, cotton production is reduced to 14.2 million 480-pound bales, slightly down from last month’s forecast. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 789 pounds per harvested acre, down 18 pounds from the previous forecast and down 110 pounds from 2023.
As a result, USDA’s October Crop Production report adjusted the cottonseed harvest to 4.341 million tons, down from last month’s estimate but up about 19% from 2023.
- Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures: Production of alfalfa and alfalfa-mixture dry hay for 2024 is forecast at 53.9 million tons, up 8% from 2023. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 3.45 tons per acre, up 0.26 ton from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 15.6 million acres, but down slightly from 2023.
- Other hay: Production of other hay is forecast at 72.8 million tons, up 5.8% from 2023. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is expected to average 2.03 tons per acre, up 0.18 ton from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 35.9 million acres, down 3.4% from 2023.
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $236 per ton in August, while all alfalfa hay prices averaged $166 per ton, and prices for other hay averaged $148 per ton.
