The latest Cattle on Feed report, published by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), estimated the Sept. 1 feedlot inventory at 11.198 million head, about 1% above 11.127 million head in the same month last year. Feedlot net placements in August were 1% lower year over year at 1.921 million head. Marketings in August tallied 1.818 million head, down about 4% year over year. However, based on the number of weekdays in August, the pace of marketings was 1% faster than a year ago (Figure 1).
Expectations for third-quarter 2024 placements are raised from last month based on placement data for August, weekly receipts from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service report National Feeder and Stocker Cattle summary and higher year-over-year feeder cattle imports in August. Some of these calves would have likely been placed in feedlots in first-half 2025 had they been placed on grass or small-grains pastures during the second half of 2024. As a result, anticipated placements in first-half 2025 are lowered. Overall, the relatively large increase in expected third-quarter 2024 placements more than offsets the declines in placements in early 2025, resulting in a net increase of anticipated fed cattle marketings next year.
Reflecting official data through August and estimated slaughter data through the end of September, production in third-quarter 2024 is adjusted 80 million pounds higher. The outlook for fourth-quarter 2024 is raised 125 million pounds on faster pace of cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Weekly average carcass weights in the third quarter have averaged 30 pounds above the same weeks last year. In total, the 2024 beef production forecast is raised 205 million pounds from last month to 27 billion pounds, a slight increase over 2023.
Beef production projections for next year reflect adjustments in feeder calf placements in third-quarter 2024 and early 2025, which netted higher anticipated fed cattle marketings in 2025. Further, the trend in average carcass weights is carried over into next year, particularly as more fed cattle are expected to be marketed. As a result, the 2025 beef production forecast is raised 300 million pounds from last month to 25.925 billion pounds.
Cattle prices improve on higher wholesale beef values
Figure 2 shows that national comprehensive boxed beef cutout values have steadily declined to $300.09 per hundredweight (cwt) for the week ending Oct. 4 from the summer peak of $324.47 per cwt the week ending July 5. However, prices remain above last year, and based on daily reports of boxed beef cutout values, prices are showing a typical preholiday season boost. This relative price strength is helping to support slaughter steer prices.
The September average price for slaughter steers in the 5-area marketing region was $183.56 per cwt, declining for a second consecutive month, and was 15 cents per cwt lower than September last year. Packers’ margins have been aided by improved boxed beef prices but will likely remain relatively constrained by slaughter cattle prices. Cattle prices are expected to decline through the end of the year, though less than previously anticipated. As a result, the slaughter steer price forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 is raised $3 to $186 per cwt. Recent price strength is carried through to early 2025 for an annual average price of $186.50 per cwt.
In September, the weighted-average price for feeder steers weighing 750 to 800 pounds at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $246.78 per cwt. This was a decline of 50 cents from August and $8.61 lower than September 2023. During September, weekly prices hit a summer low of $240.27 per cwt, the lowest weekly price since Feb. 5. Prices have since improved, with the first week of October reporting feeder steers sold for $252.65 per cwt. Based on relative lower price levels in recent weeks, the fourth-quarter price forecast is lowered $2 to $253 per cwt. The outlook for 2025 feeder steer prices is unchanged from last month at $258.75 per cwt.
U.S. beef exports fell back slightly in August
Exports had been holding steady at around 260 million pounds from March through July this year, as Figure 3 shows. However, August exports fell to 238 million pounds, with monthly exports to nearly all major markets down year over year. Exports to Canada have fallen for two consecutive months after peaking in June of this year and were 15% lower year over year in August. Exports to China were down 14% and exports to South Korea down 13% year over year. Exports to Japan fell below year-ago levels for the first time since March, while exports to Mexico were lower year over year for only the second time this year. Monthly exports to Taiwan were about 4% higher year over year but about 8% below their five-year average.
Year-to-date exports are shown in Table 1. Japan remains the largest export destination so far this year, with exports there nearly even with the same period last year. Exports to South Korea and China are 12% and 10% lower year over year, respectively. Year-to-date exports to Mexico are up 11%, and combined exports to smaller markets outside the top six are also 2% above the same period last year. Total year-to-date exports are down about 4% from the same period last year.
The third-quarter 2024 beef export forecast is lowered 20 million pounds to 730 million, while the fourth-quarter forecast is lowered 15 million pounds to 710 million. The annual forecast for 2024 is now 2.955 billion pounds, a year-over-year decrease of almost 3%.
The beef export forecast for 2025 is unchanged from last month at 2.6 billion pounds. The recent Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service gives the first glimpse of world beef trade expectations in 2025. The limited exportable supplies from the U.S. will face increased competition on the global market as exports from Australia are expected to grow another 2% in 2025. The U.S. is forecast to be the largest producer of beef globally and the third-largest exporter of beef globally behind Brazil and Australia (not including India’s exports of carabeef [water buffalo meat]).
Beef imports
August was another record-setting month for beef imports, which were the highest ever for the month of August and the second-largest monthly import overall, behind January 2024. Australia continues to ship large amounts of beef to the U.S., with imports surpassing 100 million pounds in a single month for the first time since 2016 (Table 2). Imports from Brazil were also very strong again, suggesting that the continued high prices of beef in the U.S. are enough to offset the higher out-of-quota tariffs that imports from Brazil – and other countries without a specific quota or free trade agreement – currently face until the end of the calendar year.
Figure 4 shows the amount of beef imports and exports flowing through each of the major U.S. customs districts. By volume, 63% of year-to-date beef exports were shipped from West Coast ports, with only 29% shipped from East Coast and Gulf ports. However, 58% of beef imports passed through the East Coast and Gulf ports. The recent three-day dockworker strike along the East Coast and Gulf paused trade flowing through ports. Based on the trade flows year to-date, beef imports would have been more affected by the strike than exports. As the strike only lasted three days, the impacts, if any, will likely be small.
Based on recent trade data and expected continued strong imports from Oceania and South America, the third-quarter import forecast is raised 35 million pounds to 1.175 billion, and the fourth-quarter forecast is raised 20 million pounds to 1 billion. The annual forecast for 2024 is 4.383 billion pounds, which if realized would be a year-over-year increase of almost 18%.
The annual 2025 forecast is raised 90 million pounds in the second half of the year, bringing the annual total to 4.425 billion pounds. The new seasonal pattern from the last two years is expected to continue, with larger imports in the first and third quarters. The substantial year-over-year growth in 2024 imports has been largely driven by higher imports from Australia resulting from greater Australian beef production and increased exportable supplies. While total U.S. beef imports are expected to remain high in 2025, year-over-year growth is expected to be much slower. The current forecast anticipates a 1% year-over-year increase in imports in 2025.
