The November Feed Outlook report shows 2024-25 U.S. coarse grains supplies are reduced on lower corn yields. The 2024-25 U.S. coarse grain supply forecast is lower this month, as a slight decrease in corn yields offsets gains in sorghum supplies realized through elevated yields. With the 2024-25 U.S. corn supply falling 1.5 million tons, and no use changes, corn ending stocks are revised down to 49.2 million tons. The 5% increase in sorghum supplies is expected to contribute to higher feed requirements, as grain-consuming animal units are projected higher this month. Thus, with overall supplies falling and use rising, coarse grains ending stocks are reduced this month to just over 52 million tons.
In its November Crop Production report, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) lowered its 2024-25 national corn production forecast by 60 million bushels to 15.1 billion bushels. This reduction is the result of a decrease in yields to 183.1 bushels per acre from the October 2024 forecast (of 183.8) on unchanged harvested area (82.7 million acres).
Although corn yields were reduced for some major corn-producing states – including Illinois (lowered to 218 from 222 bushels per acre), Iowa (down 1 bushel per acre to 213) and Nebraska (reduced from 196 bushels per acre to 194) – yield gains in other states – such as Indiana (raised to 209 bushels per acre from 202), North Dakota (exhibiting a 5-bushel-per-acre gain to 149) and Ohio (picking up 2 bushels per acre to 185) – are partly offsetting. The net result of these changes brings corn yields down by 0.7 bushel per acre, ultimately lowering the total supply estimate to 16.9 billion bushels. Despite the monthly decline, 2024-25 corn supplies are poised to exceed 2023-24 levels by nearly 200 million bushels.
U.S. corn export volumes remain strong to start the 2024-25 marketing year, with September volumes nearly reaching 170 million bushels. This export level is 35% above last year and the strongest start to a marketing year since September 2018. U.S. corn export sales and inspections data – reported in the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) U.S. Export Sales and USDA Agricultural Marketing Service’s (AMS) Federal Grain inspection Service (FGIS), respectively – suggest U.S. corn exports will remain healthy. These factors support the 2024-25 U.S. corn export forecast of 2,325 million bushels, unchanged from last month.
Global coarse grains production for 2024-25 is forecast 0.4 million tons lower this month, to 1,499.7 million tons. Lower U.S. coarse grains production is partially offset by an increase in foreign coarse grain output that is projected 0.7 million tons higher this month. Higher foreign corn output is partially offset by a decrease for foreign barley, sorghum and millet output.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from November.
