The December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) showed this month’s 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November. These data imply corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017. Corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. Corn exports for 2024-25 are raised for the U.S. and Canada but lowered for the European Union (EU). The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2024-25 is forecast at 131.2 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections are unchanged. Soybean oil production is raised from last month on a higher extraction rate. With higher soybean oil supplies and strong export commitments to date, exports are raised 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion. Food, feed and other industrial use of soybean oil is reduced 200 million pounds, leaving soybean oil ending stocks down slightly and similar to the 2023-24 marketing year. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.20 per bushel, down 60 cents from last month.
This month’s 2024-25 U.S. wheat outlook is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports and lower ending stocks. Imports are raised 5 million bushels to 125 million on a strong pace for hard red spring. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million. White wheat exports are increased 15 million bushels to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets. Exports for soft red winter and hard red spring are both raised 5 million bushels. Projected wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million, still up 14% from last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.
The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is increased as higher poultry and beef production is partially offset by lower pork production. Beef production is raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter, as well as heavier dressed weights. For 2025, the beef production forecast is reduced due to the current restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico. The restrictions would result in lower feedlot placements throughout the year and lower beef production, particularly in the second half of 2025. Beef imports for 2024 are raised on recent data. Beef exports are unchanged. For 2025, beef imports are raised on expected demand for processing-grade beef. Beef exports are lowered based on tighter domestic supplies and less competitive prices. The cattle price forecast is unchanged for 2024, while the forecast for 2025 is raised on tighter expected cattle and beef supplies.
Find additional information on the USDA WASDE report from December.
