The recent discovery of New World screwworm (NWS) in cattle in the Mexican state of Chiapas has resulted in a restriction on the importation of cattle and bison originating from or transiting through Mexico, effective Nov. 22, 2024. Forecasts in this report reflect this restriction, and in the absence of an official timeline for updated import protocols, these restrictions are assumed to remain in place indefinitely. Subsequent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecasts will reflect any officially announced changes in policy when they occur.
2024 fourth-quarter production adjusted up fractionally
Based on daily and weekly estimated slaughter data for November through early December, steer and heifer slaughter has been at a slightly faster pace than previously expected, which is partially offset by a slower than previously expected pace for bulls. These data also show slightly heavier carcass weights than expected last month. The forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 beef production is moved fractionally higher by 10 million pounds from last month to 6.93 billion pounds, a 2% increase from last year. The annual total is updated to 27.035 billion pounds, an increase of 0.3% from last year.
Import ban leads to fewer cattle placements, reducing anticipated 2025 fed cattle slaughter
The policy prohibiting live cattle imports from Mexico reduces the previously anticipated cattle placements for the last week of November and December, partially offsetting estimates of larger-than-expected placements in October in the latest Cattle on Feed report from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). According to the report, the Nov. 1 feedlot inventory is estimated at 11.986 million head, less than 1% above 11.956 million head in the same month last year. Feedlot net placements in October were over 5% higher year over year at 2.231 million head. Marketings in October tallied 1.845 million head, also up nearly 5% from a year ago. The year-over-year increase in marketings reflects one more available weekday of slaughter compared to last year, which kept the per-day marketings on par with last year. Although total inventory is up, Texas, Kansas and Arizona have fewer cattle on feed than a year ago. This is the first time since mid-2023 that there have been consecutive months of cattle on feed over 150 days that are below a year ago in total number of head and percentage of these cattle.
With the Mexico import prohibition in place until further notice, anticipated placements in 2025 are also cut. As a result, when compared to last month’s expectations, fed cattle slaughter is anticipated to decline further in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2025. The outlook for 2025 beef production is lowered 615 million pounds from last month to 25.665 billion pounds, a 5% decline year over year.
Lower cattle imports and fewer slaughter cattle expected to boost cattle prices
In November, the weighted-average price for feeder steers weighing 750 to 800 pounds at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $252.80 per hundredweight (cwt), a $1.39 decline from October. Prices jumped in the first two weeks of December – likely on the news of the ban on feeder cattle from Mexico – to a weighted average of $268.42 per cwt, an increase of more than $15 from November. The fourth-quarter price forecast for feeder steers is $5 above last month at $259 per cwt.
The assumption of Mexican feeder cattle being absent from the U.S. supply chain in 2025 is reflected in next year’s price forecasts; the annual forecast is raised $15 from last month to $272.50 per cwt. Figure 1 shows weekly prices and quarterly price forecasts.
The November average price for slaughter steers in the 5-area marketing region was $187.20 per cwt, $1.42 lower than October. Wholesale beef prices have not shown the strong seasonal decline typically seen late in the year, and in recent weeks they have moved counter-seasonally. This wholesale beef price strength has bolstered slaughter cattle prices during the holiday season.
Based on December daily price information, the slaughter steer price forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 is unchanged from last month at $188 per cwt. Because fewer feeder cattle are expected to be placed in November and December 2024 and in 2025, there are expected to be fewer slaughter steers available for processing starting in second-quarter 2025. Consequently, the 2025 price forecast is raised $3 to $191 per cwt, a 2% year-over-year increase. Figure 2 shows weekly prices and quarterly price forecasts.
Beef exports
U.S. beef exports in October totaled 241 million pounds, less than 1% lower year over year. Exports to China were up 20% compared to a year earlier, while exports to South Korea were up 6%. Those year-over-year increases were offset by decreased exports to Canada (-24%), Taiwan (-21%) and Japan (-6%). Monthly exports to Canada have been steadily declining since June, partially driven by a stronger U.S. dollar; in October, monthly exports to Canada reached their lowest level since 2007. Monthly exports to Taiwan have also fallen off since reaching a peak in June, and exports to Japan have been declining since July of this year.
Exports to China reached nearly 45 million pounds, the largest monthly total this year. China’s reported beef imports from all countries in October were about 7% higher than the previous year, the first year-over-year increase since May of this year, according to the Trade Data Monitor.
Year-to-date U.S. beef exports through October are about 3% lower than in the same period last year, as Table 1 shows. The total export forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 is unchanged from last month at 710 million pounds. The annual export forecast is also unchanged at 2.96 billion pounds, which if realized would be a year-over-year decrease of less than 3%.
The changes to the annual 2025 beef export forecast primarily reflect the changes to U.S. beef production this month, as discussed above. Due to the decreased production expectation, beef exports are lowered across the last three quarters of 2025, bringing the annual forecast to 2.595 billion pounds. This brings exports to around 10% of production, compared to an expected 11% in 2024.
Beef imports
Beef imports rose again in October to 414 million pounds, more than 35% higher year over year. Imports were up from last year from all major suppliers except Canada. Imports from Australia have risen since May of this year and have followed a pattern similar to that of 2014. Table 2 shows that year-to-date imports from Australia have surpassed imports from Canada, bringing Australia back as the top supplier of beef to the U.S. for the first time since 2016.
Beef imports from Brazil continue strong, despite being subject to the higher out-of-quota tariff rate through the end of the year. During the previous two years, U.S. imports of Brazilian beef tapered off in the last few months of the year as importers waited for the quota to reopen on Jan. 1. However, demand for beef trimmings and beef prices in the U.S. remain elevated enough to offset the extra costs of the tariff. Additionally, beef production and total exports from Brazil remain elevated, with total exports to all countries up more than 29% through October according to the Trade Data Monitor. Imports from Argentina and Uruguay were also very strong year over year in October. As of Dec. 9, the individual quotas for Argentina and Uruguay were 96% and 89% filled, respectively.
Based on increased imports from Oceania and South America, the beef import forecast for fourth-quarter 2024 is raised 80 million pounds to 1.17 billion, bringing the annual forecast to 4.588 billion pounds. If realized, this would be a 23% increase year over year.
After adjusting the import forecast for fourth-quarter 2025 to reflect a similar seasonality pattern to 2024, further changes to the 2025 annual beef import forecast primarily reflect the changes made to U.S. beef production this month, as discussed above. Higher expected imports resulting from decreased domestic beef availability and increased beef imports from Mexico were partially offset by an expectation of decreased demand for lean trimmings due to lower anticipated steer and heifer slaughter. The annual forecast is therefore raised to 4.71 billion pounds, which would be a 3% year-over-year increase.
