The February Feed Outlook report shows no changes to the 2024-25 U.S. corn supply and demand outlook this month. Corn cash prices are rising in tandem with strong demand for U.S. corn. Consequently, the average 2024-25 corn price is projected 10 cents higher at $4.35 per bushel.
Corn supply outlook is unchanged from January report
The USDA’s outlook for the 2024-25 U.S. corn supply is unchanged from the January 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Based on the Crop Production 2024 Summary report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on Jan. 10, 2025, the U.S. corn output is projected to be 14,867 million bushels. With beginning stocks unchanged at 1,763 million bushels and projected imports still forecast at 25 million bushels, total projected corn supplies remain unchanged from the January WASDE report at 16,655 million bushels.
U.S. corn-use prospects remain strong
The 2024-25 U.S. corn export forecast remains unchanged this month at 2,450 million bushels. This projection is supported by robust exports in December, along with shipments, inspections and sales data at the end of January. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau data, U.S. corn exports totaled 728.5 million bushels for the September-December period of the 2024-25 U.S. corn marketing year, up 29.4% compared to the same period last year. As of Jan. 30, 2025, the Agricultural Marketing Service’s corn inspections are up 33.3% compared to a year ago, at 856.3 million bushels. The Foreign Agricultural Service’s reported export commitments (accumulated exports and outstanding sales) for the week ending Jan. 30, 2025, are up 28.2% compared to a year ago and the third highest on record, at 1,762.4 million bushels. At the end of January, U.S. corn export commitments to Mexico are slightly up (3.8%) compared to the same period last year. Conversely, U.S. corn commitments to China, once a top U.S. corn buyer, have fallen to a six-year low at 1.3 million bushels. China’s corn imports since the start of the 2024-25 international trade year (October-September) have been subdued. The country’s corn-import prospects for the 2024-25 trade year are further reduced this month, projected at less than half of the 2023-24 trade year level. Looking outside of Mexico and China, U.S. corn export commitments to other countries are booming, up 63.5% from a year ago. As an example, U.S. corn export commitments to the European Union (EU) are 79 million bushels, which are their highest level in the last decade. As a reminder, the EU suffered corn production losses with EU-projected corn output standing at the second lowest level in the past 15 years (see the December 2024 Feed Outlook). Therefore, despite reduced corn demand from China, competitive U.S. corn prices (combined with import needs from Mexico and other countries) have fostered strong export prospects for marketing year 2024-25.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from February.
