This issue of Progressive Dairy features what has become our annual overview of the “State of Dairy.” This year’s flyover – both in this magazine and expanded online content – reflects questionnaire responses from more than 100 producers, organization leaders, economists, lenders, advisers and others who were asked to share their thoughts and outlooks for 2023.
As someone who has now observed the time travel of dairy over more than four decades in my career as an agricultural journalist – and after growing up on a Wisconsin dairy farm for two decades prior to that – it strikes me that this year is a little bit different.
Yes, there are still distinct geographic concerns, challenges and opportunities that separate dairy producers, processors, marketers and even consumers. However, it seems to me there’s also been a homogenization regarding many of those topics.
Higher feed and input costs know few boundaries; a shortage of labor is a pain; rising interest rates impact day-to-day operations as well as long-term investments. There’s shared frustrations over how long it takes to modernize the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) system, at the same time regulatory efforts impacting environmental and other on-farm practices move at seemingly breakneck speeds. Taking the road to policy changes requires navigating through orange barrels reestablished every election cycle. Customers want “it,” and they want it now, delivered.
Some of that issue homogenization is likely due to how the structure of the industry has changed. When I started my career in February 1980, there were about 120,000 dairy producers pooling about 67% of all U.S. milk production through 47 FMMOs. In 2022, fewer than 23,000 dairy producers marketed about 67% of all U.S. milk production through 11 FMMOs. Annual production is up by 100 billion pounds.
In the past, dairy’s structure provided a more diverse set of localized challenges and concerns. As a result of changes to scope and structure, the dairy industry has become more consolidated and much more influenced by regional, national and even international factors.
While state and regional issues have become more similar, something that has diverged from the recent past – from my perspective, at least – are the moods and outlooks of individual producers. Maybe they’ve learned to express them better, or maybe some of the “filters” have come off.
When starting this “State of Dairy” feature a few years ago, a near-unanimous chorus of “cautious optimism” emerged almost every year. While that’s still an underlying theme in 2023, producer emotions I heard this winter spanned everything from depression to optimism. While that expanse is part of human nature, it’s also become more visible and audible as we change forms of communication.
This isn’t a call for a return to “the good old days” because that cow is out of the barn. But one phrase from my youth seems to again be taking on significant importance: Think globally, act locally.
Your “state” of dairy starts with your family and neighborhood. If you’re strong there, you’ll be better able to tackle the regional, national and international challenges ahead.
