It never ceases to amaze me what economists will use to watch economic trends. My latest revelation was using the demand for cardboard boxes. The Kiplinger Letter reports that data from Fibre Box Association indicate falling demand similar to previous recessions. The American Forest and Paper Association reported that boxboard production was down 5% in the first quarter (compared to 2022) and a survey of independent North American box makers showed a decrease in cardboard box demand falling to 2019 levels after declining by 4% last year.
So there you have it – cardboard boxes: the new economic trend indicator.
This reminded me of how the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) uses the “Waffle House index.” Since Waffle House stays open 24-7 for 365 days a year, the agency watches its menu offerings during extreme natural disasters (tornadoes, hurricanes) to determine the intensity of a storm and how a community is faring in the aftermath.
Both indicators seem bizarro to me – completely nutso. Waffles and cardboard boxes – it sounds like a kid’s backyard playgroup.
And yet, a very small part of my brain buys into the methodology … because of agriculture.
So, here’s the thing – if you look on any social media channel or ag group posting relating to agriculture, you’ll see sunsets, equipment in the field and harvests out the wazoo, but the photos you’ll see most often are kids in the tractor cab, kids in the combine with a parent, kids driving the swather or pulling the hay rake, kids irrigating and changing pipe, and kids moving cows. This leads me to believe there might be a new “ag economic indicator” – nope, not sunsets, not combines, not equipment, but kids’ involvement in agriculture. Or maybe the metric is the enthusiasm of parents to involve them – not just “use” them but involve and encourage them.
In the 1980s and '90s, I knew several farming, ranching and dairying parents who encouraged their kids to go to college, get an education and prepare for a career outside of agriculture. Those parents were discouraged. They were living through an era of record-high interest rates, falling land values, operating in the red and with little hope of turning their businesses around. Several people simply walked off the farm and never returned. It was the “hurricane” of agriculture, the “earthquake” that shook the foundations of the industry.
But if we want to believe social media (and trust me, I hate saying that), we might look at the photos posted or the enthusiasm of the parents to involve their kids in agriculture and say the indications for future ag trends are looking pretty good. There’s a robust push to encourage youth in ag-related fields of study rather than to marginalize their involvement.
This, in part at least, was the impetus for centering this issue around youth and youth programs in agriculture. There are so many noteworthy youth and youth programs in Idaho that, of course, we couldn’t highlight them all, but you’ll find a fair representation of them in this issue (pun not intended but a happy accident).
And then, for crying out loud, put the issue in a cardboard box with all other past Ag Proud – Idaho issues you’re saving, and let’s help out that cardboard box industry. Apparently, the recession is counting on us doing our part.
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