It’s that time again – crunching the numbers to produce our annual forage statistics poster (click here to view). If you read my editorial at this time last year, you’ll know that working with numbers is not necessarily my favorite thing to do.
But this year was a bit different. I was actually looking forward to seeing what the annual Crop Production Summary report from the USDA had to say.
Because of difficult growing conditions in many parts of the country in 2011, I fully expected to see lower production numbers compared to 2010. But how much would they be down?
According to the report, “production of dry hay for 2011 is estimated at 131 million tons, down 10 percent from the 2010 total.
This is the lowest United States production level since 1988.” For alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures, “production in 2011 is estimated at 65.3 million tons, down 4 percent from 2010.
This is the lowest United States production level since 1959.” Corn silage production was also lower than previous years, but not at quite such drastic levels.
We were not able to include graphical data from the forage estimation program on the insert poster, but again quoting from the annual Crop Production Summary:
“Eighteen states participate in the forage estimation program, which measures annual production of forage crops, with an emphasis on total alfalfa production.
Haylage and greenchop production is converted to 13 percent moisture and combined with dry hay production to derive the total forage production.
“The total 2011 all-haylage and greenchop production for the 18 states in the forage program is 32 million tons, of which 20.5 million tons are from alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures. The total all-haylage production is down 5 percent from last year.
“The 18-state total forage area harvested is 33.1 million acres, including 13.8 million acres from alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures.
The total forage harvested area is 7 percent below 2010, while the total forage production is down 11 percent from last year. The United States yield is estimated at 2.71 tons per acre, down 0.1 ton from the previous year.”
Another interesting statistic was new seedings of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures. “Growers seeded 2.32 million acres of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures during 2011, down 9 percent from 2010.
This established a record low for seedings of alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures for the United States.”
Some of the lowest production levels in nearly a quarter of a century and record-low alfalfa seedings. What does this mean for the 2012 forage year? It could be a tough road ahead.
While forage producers have recently been enjoying high prices for their products because of lower availability, it’s important to consider whether or not this is sustainable over time.
Wide swings in the price of hay and other forage are not good for the industry as a whole. It makes it difficult to budget and plan from year to year, whether you are buying or selling. And often “good times” for one commodity mean “bad times” for another.
While I understand that ups and downs are the nature of economics, growers will need to proceed with a bit of caution this coming year.
If you were lucky enough to market your hay and receive high prices, consider investing some of it in needed equipment or supply upgrades, but also think about tucking some away for the inevitable lower-price days to come.
If you are growing forage to feed on your own farm, be sure to make the most of it; do what needs to be done to preserve the quality of your feed and utilize it properly in your rations.
As always, it will be interesting to watch and see what the coming year has in store for us all. Read what some “Forage Folks” think will happen in 2012 (click her to view). Do you agree or disagree with their assessments?
Ultimately we’re all just along for the ride, but hopefully we can make smart decisions ahead of time that will make the road we travel a little smoother.
