November 2023 U.S. agricultural export numbers revealed higher sales volumes of cheese, high-protein whey, dairy heifers and hay. However, slow global economic movement and inflationary forces are limiting overall growth. Here’s Progressive Dairy’s 30,000-foot look at dairy-related export categories.
Dairy products
An improving dairy product export story is primarily limited to cheese and high-protein whey, according to a monthly market update from the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC). U.S. cheese suppliers shipped 38,610 metric tons (MT) in November, a 4% increase over the same month a year earlier. However, the cheese category’s improvement and ongoing growth in high-protein whey exports (WPC80+) were insufficient to offset declines in almost all other product categories.
Year-over-year U.S. dairy exports fell 8.1% in milk solids equivalent (MSE) terms in November and were down 7.4% year to date (YTD). Even as U.S. exports of high-value products like cheese and whey proteins grew, lower commodity prices pushed U.S. dairy export value down 21% to $631 million in November, putting overall value down 16% YTD (to $7.481 billion) with one month to go.
2023 CWT-assisted exports
The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) said 2023 Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) program-assisted export contracts covered 922 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis. CWT dairy product sales contracts in 2023 totaled 58.4 million pounds of American-type cheese, 1.1 million pounds of butter, 46,000 pounds of anhydrous milkfat, 9.1 million pounds of cream cheese and 39 million pounds of whole milk powder.
Dairy heifer sales strong
Another large shipment of dairy replacement heifers to Saudi Arabia pushed U.S. exports to the highest two-month total since the final quarter of 2021. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimated export sales of U.S. dairy replacement heifers totaled 2,158 in November, following shipments of 4,202 head in October. Demand remains strong from cattle buyers where foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks have decimated herds.
January-November exports now total 16,931 head, more than double the number exported during the same period a year ago.
Besides live dairy replacements, exports of dairy embryos were estimated at 964 in November, the largest monthly total since May 2023. The year-to-date now stands at 9,718, about 3,300 fewer than the same period a year ago. China is the leading market for the year with 4,516.
Hay exports pick up
The pace of alfalfa hay exports picked up a little in November, but year-to-date sales remained at a nine-year low. Monthly exports were estimated at 199,440 MT, up about 18,000 MT from October, bringing the January-November total to just under 1.97 million MT. November sales to China rose to 99,400 MT, a high for the year. Sales to Japan totaled 34,839 MT, a six-month high.
November exports of dehydrated and sun-dried alfalfa cubes (8,000 MT) were a three-month high, with Japan representing the vast majority of the market.
At 98,815 MT, November exports of other hay held steady for a third straight month. The year-to-date total is 911,398 MT, still well below averages for the January-November period extending back two decades. Japan maintained its spot as the top market, taking about 50% of other hay shipments (49,500 MT) during the month, a high for the year. November sales to South Korea were steady at almost 32,000 MT, 32% of the total.
Other trade news
- USDEC receives funds: The USDA FAS has awarded more than $203 million to nearly 70 agricultural organizations to help expand export markets via the Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program. The USDEC received about $4.59 million through MAP and about $639,060 through the FMD program.
- Trade mission to India: Alexis Taylor, USDA undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs, will lead an agribusiness trade mission to New Delhi, India, from April 22-25, 2024. Potential markets include animal proteins and dairy products. The USDA is accepting applications until Jan. 22, from U.S. exporters who wish to join the delegation.
- International trade law report: Husch Blackwell's fifth-annual international trade law year-in-review report provides a detailed look at what transpired in international trade law during 2023 and looks ahead at how the coming year might develop. “International Trade Law: 2023 Year in Review & Outlook for 2024” focuses on U.S. customs and border protection developments, export controls and trade sanctions, supply chains and logistics, and more.
- Trade balance: The U.S. Department of Commerce/Census Bureau estimated the U.S. ag export/import trade balance through October was a deficit of $20 billion. Check back for an update when the November trade balance is released.
